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31.
At the current rate of global warming, the target of limiting it within 2 degrees by the end of the century seems more and more unrealistic. Policymakers, businesses and organizations leading international negotiations urge the scientific community to provide realistic and accurate assessments of the possible consequences of so called “high end” climate scenarios.This study illustrates a novel procedure to assess the future flood risk in Europe under high levels of warming. It combines ensemble projections of extreme streamflow for the current century based on EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 climate scenarios with recent advances in European flood hazard mapping. Further novelties include a threshold-based evaluation of extreme event magnitude and frequency, an alternative method to removing bias in climate projections, the latest pan-European exposure maps, and an improved flood vulnerability estimation.Estimates of population affected and direct flood damages indicate that by the end of the century the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe is projected to increase by an average 220% due to climate change only. When coherent socio-economic development pathways are included in the assessment, central estimates of population annually affected by floods range between 500,000 and 640,000 in 2050, and between 540,000 and 950,000 in 2080, as compared to 216,000 in the current climate. A larger range is foreseen in the annual flood damage, currently of 5.3 B€, which is projected to rise at 20–40 B€ in 2050 and 30–100 B€ in 2080, depending on the future economic growth. 相似文献
32.
The purpose of the present work is <!–<query>The highlights are in an incorrect format. Hence they have been deleted. Please refer the online instructions: http://www.elsevier.com/highlights and provide 3-5 bullet points.</query>–>to study the effect of the Reynolds number on the near-wake structure and separating shear layers behind a circular cylinder. Three-dimensional unsteady large-eddy simulation is carried out and two different subgrid scale models are applied in order to evaluate the turbulent wake reasonably. The Reynolds number based on the free-stream velocity and the cylinder diameter is ranging from Re = 5500–41,300, corresponding to the full development of the shear-layer instability in the intermediate subcritical flow regime. For a complete validation of this numerical study, hydrodynamic bulk coefficients are computed and compared to experimental measurements and numerical studies in the literature. Special focus is made on the variations of both the large-scale near-wake structure and the small-scale shear-layer instability with increasing Reynolds numbers. The present numerical study clearly shows the broadband nature of the shear-layer instability as well as the dependence of the shear-layer frequency especially on the high Reynolds numbers. 相似文献
33.
The statistical properties of long-crested nonlinear wave time series measured in an offshore basin have been analyzed in different aspects such as the distributions of surface elevation, wave crest, wave trough, and wave period. Comparison with linear, second-order and third-order theoretical models indicates that although bound wave effects also contribute to the deviation from a Gaussian process, it is the modulational instability that primarily determines the discrepancy in the evolution process in the presence of strong nonlinearity. Interestingly enough, wave crest is more sensitive to the quasi-resonant four-wave interaction effect than wave trough and the scaled maximal wave crest presents a linear regression model with the coefficient of kurtosis. Meanwhile, the estimation of the observed statistical properties is reconstructed on the basis of an ensemble of 100 wave series simulated by the NLS-type equations and compared favourably with the experimental results in most cases. Moreover, with the increased third-order nonlinear effect the difference between NLS and Dysthe simulations is enlarged and mainly reflected on the distribution of wave crest. 相似文献
34.
Yunjun Yao Shunlin Liang Qiming Qin Kaicun Wang Shaohua Zhao 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2011
The latent heat of evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in the assessment of drought severity as one sensitive indicator of land drought status. A simple and accurate method of estimating global ET for the monitoring of global land surface droughts from remote sensing data is essential. The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid ET model by introducing empirical coefficients based on a simple linear two-source land ET model, and to then use this model to calculate the Evaporative Drought Index (EDI) based on the actual estimated ET and the potential ET in order to characterize global surface drought conditions. This is done using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) products, AVHRR-NDVI products from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 (NCEP-2) datasets. We randomly divided 22 flux towers into two groups and performed a series of cross-validations using ground measurements collected from the corresponding flux towers. The validation results from the second group of flux towers using the data from the first group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −6.72 W/m2 to 12.95 W/m2 and the average monthly bias is −1.73 W/m2. Similarly, the validation results of the first group of flux towers using data from second group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −12.91 W/m2 to 10.26 W/m2 and the average monthly bias is −3.59 W/m2. To evaluate the reliability of the hybrid ET model on a global scale, we compared the estimated ET from the GEWEX, AVHRR-GIMMS-NDVI, and NECP-2 datasets with the latent heat flux from the Global Soil Wetness Project-2 (GSWP-2) datasets. We found both of them to be in good agreement, which further supports the validity of our model's global ET estimation. Significantly, the patterns of monthly EDI anomalies have a good spatial and temporal correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) anomalies from January 1984 to December 2002, which indicates that the method can be used to accurately monitor long-term global land surface drought. 相似文献
35.
36.
In this paper, a nonlinear optimization method is used to explore the finite-time instability of the atmospheric circulation
with a three-level quasigeostrophic model under the framework of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). As
a natural generalization of linear singular vector (SV), CNOP is defined as an initial perturbation that makes the cost function
the maximum at a prescribed forecast time under certain physical constraint conditions. Special attentions are paid to the
different structures and energy evolutions of the optimal perturbations. 相似文献
37.
38.
This paper presents a study on potential instability and spiral structure of unstable rain clusters.First,we develop a linearized non-axisymmetrical mathematic model for rain clusters in circular cylindrical coordinates and acquire its analytic solution.Second,we discuss the potential instability of non-axisymmetrical rain clusters.Finally,we conclude that spiral structures can exist in rain clusters.Our analysis indicates that potential instability occurs when humid stratification coefficient is less than zero.Unstable growth rate increases with the increase of the absolute value for humid stratification coefficient.The simpler the vertical structure of perturbation,the thicker the inversion layer;additionally,the smaller the radius of the rain clusters,the larger the unstable growth rate.Simulation results agree well with those from observation and forecast.The spiral structure simulated by our model is similar to a radar echo,suggesting that rain clusters with spiral structures can occur in the atmosphere.In addition,they are generally close to the model solution in this work. 相似文献
39.
气象台站20 cm蒸发皿观测资料自然正交分解显示,1980～2000年中国区域气温显著增加期间,长江中游至河套、东北等区域地表年蒸发潜力呈增加趋势;相反在长江以南、东部和西南等地区年蒸发潜力呈下降趋势.辐射观测资料分析结果表明,自20世纪70年代中国区域太阳入射能整体呈下降趋势,因此对于蒸发潜力增加的地区,太阳辐射产生... 相似文献
40.